Crisis Report - June 19th, 2025

08:00 AEST – Trump Claims Iran “Weeks Away” from Nuclear Capability

U.S. President Trump asserted that Iran was “a few weeks away” from developing a nuclear weapon, a claim disputed by U.S. intelligence, citing no verified nuclear weapons program. Trump indicated he is “considering joining Israeli strikes” on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, though U.S. involvement remains uncertain. 

10:30 AEST – Hypersonic Missile Ambitions Raised

Iran announced it had launched hypersonic “Fattah‑1” missiles targeting Israel. Analysts caution that while these missiles may reach Mach 5+, they lack advanced maneuverability, and Israel reportedly intercepted over 95 % of them.

13:00 AEST – Russia Warns U.S. Against Military Involvement

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that direct U.S. military support for Israel “could significantly destabilise the Middle East.” Russia, already in a strategic partnership with Iran, urged restraint to prevent escalation. 

15:00 AEST – Maritime Tensions Rise at UN Shipping Forum

At the International Maritime Organisation, Israel and Iran exchanged sharp accusations. Iran alleged Israeli strikes on petrochemical facilities risked global shipping, while Israel countered that Iran, via the Houthis, endangers the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Mariners are being advised to avoid Iranian waters. 

17:00 AEST – Markets React, Oil Near USD 75, Gulf Markets Slide

Oil prices rose close to USD 75 per barrel amid conflict fears. Gulf stock markets ended lower, with Saudi and UAE equities down about 1–1.2 %, reflecting investor anxiety over regional instability

“A few weeks away” from a nuclear weapon, Trump said about Iran, despite U.S. intelligence doubts. 

Summary

The sixth day of the Israel–Iran war sees heightened nuclear concerns, significant missile developments, major powers cautioning against escalation, and ripple effects in maritime security and global markets.

Sources

Image: Mahmud Hams / Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

• The Guardian / Reuters live updates 

• Reuters: Maritime row at IMO reuters.com

• Reuters: Russia warns U.S. reuters.com

• AP: Hypersonic missiles analysis Associated Press News: Breaking News, Latest Headlines and Videos | AP News

• Reuters: Gulf markets reaction

   Most Gulf markets in red as Israel-Iran conflict escalates | Reuters

  
  

For full coverage and minute‑by‑minute updates, see The Guardian and Reuters live blogs.